# How predictions work ## The basic shape of a market Every Fronex market has **two or three possible outcomes**: | Market type | Outcomes | | ----------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- | | **Two-way** (knockouts, crypto strikes, yes/no questions) | Team A · Team B | | **Three-way** (group-stage soccer, draw possible) | Team A · Draw · Team B | | **N-way** (top scorer, group winner, top performer of week) | One outcome per option | You **pick an outcome** and the market gives you a **price** — between 0.01 and 0.99 USDT. The price represents the market's current view of how likely that outcome is. Example: > **Brazil vs Argentina — group stage** Brazil **0.42** · Draw **0.28** · Argentina **0.30** Buying Brazil at 0.42 USDT means: if Brazil wins, you receive 1.00 USDT per share. Your profit is 0.58 USDT per share. If Brazil doesn't win, your shares settle to zero. ## Buying and selling Markets are an **order book**, not a fixed-price product. Prices move as people buy and sell. * **Buy** an outcome you think is more likely than its price suggests. * **Sell** a position you already hold to lock in a profit (or cut a loss) before the market resolves. You don't have to wait until settlement. If you bought Brazil at 0.42 and the price rises to 0.55 before the match starts, you can sell and pocket the difference. ## The indicative price Alongside the order-book price, every market shows an **indicative price** — our estimate of fair value based on outside data. It's a reference point, not what you actually trade at; the order book always rules. The indicative comes from: * **Soccer**: bookmaker odds from API-Football, averaged across all books that quote the match and converted to a probability (after removing the bookmaker margin). * **Crypto strike markets** ("BTC closes above $X by date Y"): live spot price + a volatility model. * **Other markets**: a tier-based default until enough trading produces a real price. The indicative refreshes automatically — every 30 seconds for crypto, every minute during live soccer matches, less often for slow-moving markets. If the order-book price drifts far from the indicative, that's a signal worth a second look: either the market has information the indicative doesn't, or the indicative is anchoring a stale view. ## Heavy-favorite warning When an outcome is priced at **5¢ or below** (very unlikely) or **95¢ or above** (near-certain), the market is asymmetric: $1 staked on the favorite pays just a few cents, while $1 on the underdog could pay $20+. Fronex shows a banner on these markets and reduces the quick-bet button amounts so you don't accidentally lock a large stake to win pennies. You can still type any amount manually. ## How settlement works When the event ends, the market **resolves** based on data from one of our oracle providers: * **Soccer & tennis**: API-Football (primary), TheSportsDB (backup) * **Crypto**: Binance (primary), CoinGecko (secondary), Pyth (tertiary fallback) * **Entertainment**: Spotify Charts and other public feeds * **Climate**: Open-Meteo (weather), NOAA NHC (hurricanes) * **Community/Custom**: Market Owner sets the resolution rule when creating the market; resolution is verified manually Payouts are credited straight to your in-app USDT balance within seconds of settlement — there's no claim step. The Mini App will push a notification. ## Disputed or delayed resolutions If an oracle disagrees with another source (e.g., API-Football says one thing, TheSportsDB another) or the source data is delayed, the market enters **pending resolution** and we resolve manually within 24 hours. You can still trade in and out of pending markets, but settlement happens once we confirm the outcome. ## What you'll never see on Fronex We use the language of **prediction**, not the language of gambling. You won't see "bet," "wager," "long," "short," or "leverage" anywhere in the app. You'll see: * **Predict** — pick an outcome * **Call it** — your prediction was right * **Drop a prediction** — submit your pick This isn't aesthetic — it's policy. Fronex is a prediction app for skill-based forecasting, not a betting product. ## The five pillars * [**Soccer**](/making-predictions/soccer.md) — the FIFA World Cup 2026 plus year-round leagues * [**Crypto**](/making-predictions/crypto.md) — five assets, daily/weekly markets, plus the match-window feature * [**Entertainment**](/making-predictions/entertainment.md) — music charts, awards, summer culture * [**Climate**](/making-predictions/climate.md) — host-city weather, hurricanes * [**Community & custom**](/making-predictions/community.md) — Market Owner-created markets --- # Agent Instructions: Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. 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